2013 WR review, early 2014 rankings
<CITE class=byline>By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com
</CITE>
While the running back position caused quite the stir in fantasy football 2013 due to its lack of depth and underwhelming success, this was hardly the case at wide receiver, where consensus first-rounder Calvin Johnson had plenty of help aiding fantasy owners. Consider that 23 wide receivers topped 1,000 receiving yards, and 10 reached double digits in touchdowns. Ten wide receivers scored at least 180 fantasy points in standard formats, one more than at running back. And several franchises provided multiple high-end options as weekly starters. With two positions in our rearview mirror, let's continue to recap the 2013 season and look ahead to 2014 at the wide receiver position.
Wide receiver MVP: Even had Johnson, the star of the Detroit Lions, not ultimately succumbed to knee woes that destroyed his December, he wasn't likely to end up as the position's MVP. After all, Megatron was a top-10 choice in most leagues. He should have led the position in scoring, but a combined 18 standard fantasy points the final four weeks (inactive in Week 17) paved the way for the Cleveland Browns' Josh Gordon and Denver Broncos' Demaryius Thomas to slip by him. Thomas was the fifth wide receiver off the draft board in ESPN ADP while Gordon was 42nd. Yep, quite the difference! Gordon's fantasy draft stock surely fell after the summer announcement that he would miss the first two weeks of the season with a drug-related suspension, but he still ended up topping the position in season scoring. And for the record, the quarterbacks he played with were Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell. OK, so the Browns could use an upgrade. And if it happens, watch out! Then again, how can Gordon improve? He was very good in the first half of the season then exploded in Weeks 11-14 for an average of 27 points per game, the best stretch for a wide receiver ever. It included, for the first time, consecutive 200-yard receiving performances. So Gordon is good. Real good. He does have potential off-field issues to be aware of, reminding some of enigmatic Dallas Cowboys star Dez Bryant, but no wide receiver was featured on more ESPN league championship squads.
<OFFER>Wide receiver LVP: Unlike the running back position, there weren't myriad disappointments among wide receivers. The lone members of the top 10 in ESPN live drafts to not generate significant value were Atlanta Falcons Julio Jones and Roddy White, with injuries playing the culprit in both cases. Jones was off to a terrific start through five games before fracturing a foot. That happens. It happened to Arian Foster and Doug Martin too. What White did was worse, though; he started slowly, tried to play through a hamstring injury, missed a month and didn't register his first double-digit fantasy effort until Week 13, long after his owners had lost faith. Many an owner stuck by him the first few months, to little avail, which is why he deserves the LVP. White did close strong, with a combined 35 standard fantasy points against the defensive-minded San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers, reminding everyone how terrific he can be when healthy. The five-year run as a top-10 wide receiver is over, but here resides one of the bigger sleepers for 2014, considering many people probably think he's done.
[h=4]My (early) top 60 WRs for 2014[/h]First tier (Late in Round 1)
1. Calvin Johnson, Lions
2. Josh Gordon, Browns
Second tier (Round 2)
3. A.J. Green, Bengals
4. Brandon Marshall, Bears
5. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
6. Dez Bryant, Cowboys
7. Antonio Brown, Steelers
Third tier (Round 3)
8. Julio Jones, Falcons
9. Alshon Jeffery, Bears
10. Jordy Nelson, Packers
11. Pierre Garcon, Redskins
12. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
Fourth tier (Round 4)
13. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers
14. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
15. Wes Welker, Broncos
16. Andre Johnson, Texans
Fifth tier (Round 5)
17. Randall Cobb, Packers
18. Eric Decker, Broncos
19. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
20. Keenan Allen, Chargers
21. Victor Cruz, Giants
Sixth tier (Round 6)
22. Torrey Smith, Ravens
23. Roddy White, Falcons
24. Julian Edelman, Patriots
25. Reggie Wayne, Colts
26. Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings
27. Justin Blackmon, Jaguars
Seventh tier (Round 7 and beyond)
28. Mike Wallace, Dolphins
29. Denarius Moore, Raiders
30. Percy Harvin, Seahawks
31. Kendall Wright, Titans
32. Michael Floyd, Cardinals
33. Anquan Boldin, 49ers
34. T.Y. Hilton, Colts
35. Cecil Shorts, Jaguars
36. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
37. Marques Colston, Saints
38. Rueben Randle, Giants
39. James Jones, Packers
40. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
41. Riley Cooper, Eagles
42. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans
43. Steve Johnson, Bills
44. Danny Amendola, Patriots
45. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
46. Steve Smith, Panthers
47. Tavon Austin, Rams
48. Aaron Dobson, Patriots
49. Marvin Jones, Bengals
50. Terrance Williams, Cowboys
51. Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers
52. Greg Jennings, Vikings
53. Mike Williams, Buccaneers
54. Golden Tate, Seahawks
55. Rod Streater, Raiders
56. Justin Hunter, Titans
57. Marlon Brown, Ravens
58. Kenny Stills, Saints
59. Brian Hartline, Dolphins
60. Kenbrell Thompkins, Patriots
Biggest surprise: It's tough to top what Gordon did this season, but let's give major props to San Diego Chargers rookie Keenan Allen. Try to find another reliable, productive first-year wide receiver for the entirety of the season. Seriously, we'll wait. Allen finished the season 17th among wide receivers in standard scoring with 71 receptions, 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns. A somewhat overlooked third-round pick by the Chargers, Allen did little the first three weeks while Philip Rivers tried to succeed with Malcom Floyd, Vincent Brown and Eddie Royal, then the rookie scored in fantasy double digits six times in a 10-game span. The No. 2 rookie wide receiver for receptions and yards was the Houston Texans' DeAndre Hopkins, with 52 and 802, respectively. Not even close. In addition, kudos to the Pittsburgh Steelers' Antonio Brown and Chicago Bears' Alshon Jeffery for stepping it up after slow starts to post top-10 numbers.
Biggest misconception: In the past, fantasy owners doubted that both sets of a wide receiver tandem on a given team could perform like WR1 options, but in 2012 we saw five sets of teammates end up as top-20 wide receivers. Then came this season's Broncos offense. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker both finished in the top 10, and Wes Welker might have joined them had he not missed the final three weeks of the regular season because of a concussion. Decker was the one who was often underrated from week to week until he shocked everyone with a four-touchdown, 41-point explosion against the defensive-minded Chiefs in Week 13. Four of Peyton Manning's receivers, including tight end Julius Thomas, reached double digits in touchdowns, which is remarkable, and yes, it's repeatable considering this crew should return intact in 2014. While it's folly to predict another team to duplicate this -- the 2014 New England Patriots with … aw, forget it -- it's further reminder that when an offense is this productive, it can be better to have that team's No. 3 wide receiver rather than the best guy from a weak passing team such as the New York Jets, who were led by Jeremy Kerley's 65 fantasy points this season.
Youngster to watch: Sign me up for the Minnesota Vikings' Cordarrelle Patterson. The Vikings barely used him on offense the first half of the season, and then after it was a bit too late to make a playoff run, they found ways. Patterson scored touchdowns each of the final five weeks of the season on receptions, a rushing attempt and in the return game and projects as a future star. As Gordon showed, don't worry about the Vikings' quarterback situation. Just worry about stealing Patterson as a WR3 if you are a believer. Patterson has size and speed, and he scored three rushing touchdowns while no other wide receiver among the top 50 in season scoring had any. Other rookies who didn't turn into instant stars but are still worth a future look include the St. Louis Rams' Tavon Austin, the Tennessee Titans' Justin Hunter and the Patriots' Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins.
Veteran to watch: The Indianapolis Colts' Reggie Wayne and Philadelphia Eagles' Jeremy Maclin will each be attempting successful comebacks from ACL tears. Wayne will turn 36 during the 2014 season while Maclin is a decade younger. Wayne was on pace for another 1,000-yard receiving season when he was injured; remember, he was a fifth-rounder, on average, in ESPN live drafts and among the top 15 wide receivers chosen. He'll go at a greater discount in 2014, but I wouldn't bet against a return to relevance. As for Maclin, it's no sure thing the Eagles bring him back, but certainly his value is more attractive if they do.
Keeper notes: While wide receiver is a strong fantasy position, there's also a big difference between an elite option such as Gordon and A.J. Green and a reach like Anquan Boldin and Riley Cooper. The first 10 or 15 wide receivers are generally regarded as good keepers, as opposed to running backs like the Miami Dolphins' Lamar Miller. But then again, you can probably draft several wide receivers without much concern. There's simply no right answer.
What to watch for in 2014 drafts: While Calvin Johnson remains the top choice, some will opt for Gordon or a Bronco. It's tough to argue against that approach, but while the case can certainly be made for several players at this position to find a way into the first round, it's also feasible that none find their way in. For all we know, Peyton Manning ends up a top-10 pick in many leagues. Regardless, little has changed in how I will rank and draft wide receivers for 2014. My chances of getting a top-five guy are slim because I wouldn't draft them as early as they'll likely be taken. Take a running back in Round 1, and if an elite receiver is still sitting there in Round 2, go for him.
[h=3]Five noteworthy WR stats of 2013[/h]1. The season leaders among wide receivers in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns were three different people! Gordon was the fantasy king and led in receiving yards, but Denver's Thomas had the most touchdowns. And who had the most receptions? It was the Washington Redskins' Pierre Garcon, with 113 catches on 184 targets. Pierre Garcon? Really? Guess Robert Griffin III wasn't so bad after all.
2. In 2012, 19 wide receivers registered 1,000 or more yards. That number rose to 23 this season, with several surprises achieving the mark. An Arizona Cardinal made it, but it wasn't Larry Fitzgerald. It was Michael Floyd. A Miami Dolphin made it, but it wasn't Mike Wallace. It was Brian Hartline. And who would have guessed in August that the Falcons 1,000-yard wide receiver would be Harry Douglas!
3. Few wide receivers did more with less than the Eagles' Riley Cooper and Cincinnati Bengals' Marvin Jones. Both players scored 128 standard fantasy points, though Cooper did so with only 84 targets, 50th at the position, and Jones had even fewer targets (80). Of course, these guys combined for 18 touchdown receptions, with Jones registering four on a memorable Thursday night in Week 8.
4. Cooper thrived on deep passes, averaging 17.8 yards per catch, tied with Calvin Johnson for third in the league. Kenny Stills of the New Orleans Saints -- remember that name! -- led the NFL at 20 yards per catch, and Gordon was second at 18.9. For leagues that gave extra weight to big plays, these guys added extra value.
5. The New York Giants' Hakeem Nicks was tied for 10th among wide receivers in yards per catch but didn't score a single touchdown. He scored 11 touchdowns in 2010, but the No. 18 wide receiver, on average, in ESPN live drafts didn't reach the end zone. He wasn't terrible otherwise, accruing 896 receiving yards, but the occasional score would have been nice. Meanwhile, Oakland Raiders tight end Nick Kasa caught one pass during the 2013 season, and it was a touchdown. Some things are just tough to explain.
<CITE class=byline>By Eric Karabell | ESPN.com
</CITE>
While the running back position caused quite the stir in fantasy football 2013 due to its lack of depth and underwhelming success, this was hardly the case at wide receiver, where consensus first-rounder Calvin Johnson had plenty of help aiding fantasy owners. Consider that 23 wide receivers topped 1,000 receiving yards, and 10 reached double digits in touchdowns. Ten wide receivers scored at least 180 fantasy points in standard formats, one more than at running back. And several franchises provided multiple high-end options as weekly starters. With two positions in our rearview mirror, let's continue to recap the 2013 season and look ahead to 2014 at the wide receiver position.
Wide receiver MVP: Even had Johnson, the star of the Detroit Lions, not ultimately succumbed to knee woes that destroyed his December, he wasn't likely to end up as the position's MVP. After all, Megatron was a top-10 choice in most leagues. He should have led the position in scoring, but a combined 18 standard fantasy points the final four weeks (inactive in Week 17) paved the way for the Cleveland Browns' Josh Gordon and Denver Broncos' Demaryius Thomas to slip by him. Thomas was the fifth wide receiver off the draft board in ESPN ADP while Gordon was 42nd. Yep, quite the difference! Gordon's fantasy draft stock surely fell after the summer announcement that he would miss the first two weeks of the season with a drug-related suspension, but he still ended up topping the position in season scoring. And for the record, the quarterbacks he played with were Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell. OK, so the Browns could use an upgrade. And if it happens, watch out! Then again, how can Gordon improve? He was very good in the first half of the season then exploded in Weeks 11-14 for an average of 27 points per game, the best stretch for a wide receiver ever. It included, for the first time, consecutive 200-yard receiving performances. So Gordon is good. Real good. He does have potential off-field issues to be aware of, reminding some of enigmatic Dallas Cowboys star Dez Bryant, but no wide receiver was featured on more ESPN league championship squads.
<OFFER>Wide receiver LVP: Unlike the running back position, there weren't myriad disappointments among wide receivers. The lone members of the top 10 in ESPN live drafts to not generate significant value were Atlanta Falcons Julio Jones and Roddy White, with injuries playing the culprit in both cases. Jones was off to a terrific start through five games before fracturing a foot. That happens. It happened to Arian Foster and Doug Martin too. What White did was worse, though; he started slowly, tried to play through a hamstring injury, missed a month and didn't register his first double-digit fantasy effort until Week 13, long after his owners had lost faith. Many an owner stuck by him the first few months, to little avail, which is why he deserves the LVP. White did close strong, with a combined 35 standard fantasy points against the defensive-minded San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers, reminding everyone how terrific he can be when healthy. The five-year run as a top-10 wide receiver is over, but here resides one of the bigger sleepers for 2014, considering many people probably think he's done.
[h=4]My (early) top 60 WRs for 2014[/h]First tier (Late in Round 1)
1. Calvin Johnson, Lions
2. Josh Gordon, Browns
Second tier (Round 2)
3. A.J. Green, Bengals
4. Brandon Marshall, Bears
5. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
6. Dez Bryant, Cowboys
7. Antonio Brown, Steelers
Third tier (Round 3)
8. Julio Jones, Falcons
9. Alshon Jeffery, Bears
10. Jordy Nelson, Packers
11. Pierre Garcon, Redskins
12. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
Fourth tier (Round 4)
13. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers
14. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
15. Wes Welker, Broncos
16. Andre Johnson, Texans
Fifth tier (Round 5)
17. Randall Cobb, Packers
18. Eric Decker, Broncos
19. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
20. Keenan Allen, Chargers
21. Victor Cruz, Giants
Sixth tier (Round 6)
22. Torrey Smith, Ravens
23. Roddy White, Falcons
24. Julian Edelman, Patriots
25. Reggie Wayne, Colts
26. Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings
27. Justin Blackmon, Jaguars
Seventh tier (Round 7 and beyond)
28. Mike Wallace, Dolphins
29. Denarius Moore, Raiders
30. Percy Harvin, Seahawks
31. Kendall Wright, Titans
32. Michael Floyd, Cardinals
33. Anquan Boldin, 49ers
34. T.Y. Hilton, Colts
35. Cecil Shorts, Jaguars
36. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
37. Marques Colston, Saints
38. Rueben Randle, Giants
39. James Jones, Packers
40. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
41. Riley Cooper, Eagles
42. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans
43. Steve Johnson, Bills
44. Danny Amendola, Patriots
45. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
46. Steve Smith, Panthers
47. Tavon Austin, Rams
48. Aaron Dobson, Patriots
49. Marvin Jones, Bengals
50. Terrance Williams, Cowboys
51. Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers
52. Greg Jennings, Vikings
53. Mike Williams, Buccaneers
54. Golden Tate, Seahawks
55. Rod Streater, Raiders
56. Justin Hunter, Titans
57. Marlon Brown, Ravens
58. Kenny Stills, Saints
59. Brian Hartline, Dolphins
60. Kenbrell Thompkins, Patriots
Biggest surprise: It's tough to top what Gordon did this season, but let's give major props to San Diego Chargers rookie Keenan Allen. Try to find another reliable, productive first-year wide receiver for the entirety of the season. Seriously, we'll wait. Allen finished the season 17th among wide receivers in standard scoring with 71 receptions, 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns. A somewhat overlooked third-round pick by the Chargers, Allen did little the first three weeks while Philip Rivers tried to succeed with Malcom Floyd, Vincent Brown and Eddie Royal, then the rookie scored in fantasy double digits six times in a 10-game span. The No. 2 rookie wide receiver for receptions and yards was the Houston Texans' DeAndre Hopkins, with 52 and 802, respectively. Not even close. In addition, kudos to the Pittsburgh Steelers' Antonio Brown and Chicago Bears' Alshon Jeffery for stepping it up after slow starts to post top-10 numbers.
Biggest misconception: In the past, fantasy owners doubted that both sets of a wide receiver tandem on a given team could perform like WR1 options, but in 2012 we saw five sets of teammates end up as top-20 wide receivers. Then came this season's Broncos offense. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker both finished in the top 10, and Wes Welker might have joined them had he not missed the final three weeks of the regular season because of a concussion. Decker was the one who was often underrated from week to week until he shocked everyone with a four-touchdown, 41-point explosion against the defensive-minded Chiefs in Week 13. Four of Peyton Manning's receivers, including tight end Julius Thomas, reached double digits in touchdowns, which is remarkable, and yes, it's repeatable considering this crew should return intact in 2014. While it's folly to predict another team to duplicate this -- the 2014 New England Patriots with … aw, forget it -- it's further reminder that when an offense is this productive, it can be better to have that team's No. 3 wide receiver rather than the best guy from a weak passing team such as the New York Jets, who were led by Jeremy Kerley's 65 fantasy points this season.
Youngster to watch: Sign me up for the Minnesota Vikings' Cordarrelle Patterson. The Vikings barely used him on offense the first half of the season, and then after it was a bit too late to make a playoff run, they found ways. Patterson scored touchdowns each of the final five weeks of the season on receptions, a rushing attempt and in the return game and projects as a future star. As Gordon showed, don't worry about the Vikings' quarterback situation. Just worry about stealing Patterson as a WR3 if you are a believer. Patterson has size and speed, and he scored three rushing touchdowns while no other wide receiver among the top 50 in season scoring had any. Other rookies who didn't turn into instant stars but are still worth a future look include the St. Louis Rams' Tavon Austin, the Tennessee Titans' Justin Hunter and the Patriots' Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins.
Veteran to watch: The Indianapolis Colts' Reggie Wayne and Philadelphia Eagles' Jeremy Maclin will each be attempting successful comebacks from ACL tears. Wayne will turn 36 during the 2014 season while Maclin is a decade younger. Wayne was on pace for another 1,000-yard receiving season when he was injured; remember, he was a fifth-rounder, on average, in ESPN live drafts and among the top 15 wide receivers chosen. He'll go at a greater discount in 2014, but I wouldn't bet against a return to relevance. As for Maclin, it's no sure thing the Eagles bring him back, but certainly his value is more attractive if they do.
Keeper notes: While wide receiver is a strong fantasy position, there's also a big difference between an elite option such as Gordon and A.J. Green and a reach like Anquan Boldin and Riley Cooper. The first 10 or 15 wide receivers are generally regarded as good keepers, as opposed to running backs like the Miami Dolphins' Lamar Miller. But then again, you can probably draft several wide receivers without much concern. There's simply no right answer.
What to watch for in 2014 drafts: While Calvin Johnson remains the top choice, some will opt for Gordon or a Bronco. It's tough to argue against that approach, but while the case can certainly be made for several players at this position to find a way into the first round, it's also feasible that none find their way in. For all we know, Peyton Manning ends up a top-10 pick in many leagues. Regardless, little has changed in how I will rank and draft wide receivers for 2014. My chances of getting a top-five guy are slim because I wouldn't draft them as early as they'll likely be taken. Take a running back in Round 1, and if an elite receiver is still sitting there in Round 2, go for him.
[h=3]Five noteworthy WR stats of 2013[/h]1. The season leaders among wide receivers in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns were three different people! Gordon was the fantasy king and led in receiving yards, but Denver's Thomas had the most touchdowns. And who had the most receptions? It was the Washington Redskins' Pierre Garcon, with 113 catches on 184 targets. Pierre Garcon? Really? Guess Robert Griffin III wasn't so bad after all.
2. In 2012, 19 wide receivers registered 1,000 or more yards. That number rose to 23 this season, with several surprises achieving the mark. An Arizona Cardinal made it, but it wasn't Larry Fitzgerald. It was Michael Floyd. A Miami Dolphin made it, but it wasn't Mike Wallace. It was Brian Hartline. And who would have guessed in August that the Falcons 1,000-yard wide receiver would be Harry Douglas!
3. Few wide receivers did more with less than the Eagles' Riley Cooper and Cincinnati Bengals' Marvin Jones. Both players scored 128 standard fantasy points, though Cooper did so with only 84 targets, 50th at the position, and Jones had even fewer targets (80). Of course, these guys combined for 18 touchdown receptions, with Jones registering four on a memorable Thursday night in Week 8.
4. Cooper thrived on deep passes, averaging 17.8 yards per catch, tied with Calvin Johnson for third in the league. Kenny Stills of the New Orleans Saints -- remember that name! -- led the NFL at 20 yards per catch, and Gordon was second at 18.9. For leagues that gave extra weight to big plays, these guys added extra value.
5. The New York Giants' Hakeem Nicks was tied for 10th among wide receivers in yards per catch but didn't score a single touchdown. He scored 11 touchdowns in 2010, but the No. 18 wide receiver, on average, in ESPN live drafts didn't reach the end zone. He wasn't terrible otherwise, accruing 896 receiving yards, but the occasional score would have been nice. Meanwhile, Oakland Raiders tight end Nick Kasa caught one pass during the 2013 season, and it was a touchdown. Some things are just tough to explain.
